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坎昆會議輕忽的問題:氣候變遷談了18年 行動寥寥無幾

2010-12-15 22:59 作者:本報訊

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策劃、編譯■李威撰、謝雯伃


與去年哥本哈根峰會相比,

11日甫落幕的坎昆會議可說稍有斬獲,

各國達成幾項重要共識,

包括成立綠色氣候基金、低碳科技轉移及對抗森林砍伐;

但由於資金來源與溫室氣體減排等難題懸而未決,

因此成果仍十分有限。

另外,在人口只升不降的趨勢下,

減少二氧化碳排放量如何成為可能?

這個關鍵卻鮮少獲得關注的議題,何時才會列入談判議程?

或許值得深思。

■台北市的摩托車騎士在尖峰時段擠在一個十字路口上,圖片攝於2009年10月29日。根據官方報告顯示,台灣約有880萬輛摩托車及480萬輛汽車,而幾乎所有的交通工具及居民都擠在島上1/3的地區,使得排放出的污染過度集中於民眾工作及居住的地方。(圖文/路透)

「我出生於1992年。我一生中,就只看見你們一直在協商。你們不能再告訴我們,你們需要更多時間。」來自索羅門群島的歐拉,向討論全球暖化問題對治方案的各國代表們抱怨。

"I was born in 1992. You have been negotiating all my life. You cannot tell us that you need more time," Christina Ora of the Solomon Islands complained to delegates at U.N. talks on fixing global warming (1).

2009年哥本哈根會議上,歐拉發表了一段簡短卻極具震撼力的演說。在這次於墨西哥坎昆舉辦的氣候會議上,為了表達對各國在減少氣候變遷所造成的洪患、旱災、熱浪和海平面上升,僅跨出一小步,環保運動人士將她這段名言印在T恤上。

Her line from a brief, riveting speech to a 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen was emblazoned on activists' T-shirts at the latest U.N. talks in Mexico, expressing exasperation at small steps meant to slow floods, droughts (2), heat waves and rising sea levels.

在墨西哥加勒比海渡假聖地坎昆進行的聯合國氣候變遷會議,為期兩週,共有190國參與;11日達成一份對氣候變遷採取行動的協議,內容包括自2020年起每年提供窮國1千億美元資助,並採取行動保護可吸收二氧化碳的雨林。

The two-week 190-nation conference in Cancun, a Caribbean resort, agreed on Saturday to step up action against climate change, including a goal of $100 billion a year to help the poor from 2020 and action to protect carbon-absorbing rain forests (3).

令人遺憾的是,幾乎所有人都承認,坎昆會議協定仍缺少所需的行動。坎昆協議的結果凸顯出中國、美國、石油輸出國家組織各國和太平洋島國,各有經濟利益考量,因此難以達成歐拉等人所呼籲的氣候協議目標。

Almost all admit it fell woefully short of action needed. Cancun underscored that a treaty, as urged by Ora, is out of reach because of disparate economic interests among China, the United States, OPEC oil exporters and Pacific islands.

「像是巴基斯坦的水災、俄羅斯和中國的熱浪等,都說明了氣候變遷正在發生,而且都帶來災難性的後果。」挪威環境部長蘇爾漢表示。他表示:「這次已向前跨出一大步,不過從科學角度來看,顯然還是不夠的。」過去哥本哈根缺乏一達成協議的普遍目標,造成對聯合國喪失信心,這次的坎昆會議至少恢復一些信 心。

"Signs that climate change is happening and with catastrophic consequences are there -- flooding in Pakistan, heat waves in Russia, China," Norwegian Environment Minister Erik Solheim said. "This is a huge step forward but of course not sufficient based on science," he said of the Cancun agreements that at least restore some faith in the United Nations after Copenhagen fell short of the widespread goal of reaching a treaty.

2007年,聯合國氣候委員會的科學家曾表示,需要讓2015年成為溫室氣體排放量的最高峰,才能有機會限制地球均溫的上升幅度在攝氏2度之內。均溫高於工業革命之前攝氏2度的門檻,也是在坎昆會議中所同意的最高限度。

The U.N. panel of climate scientists in 2007 said greenhouse gas emissions would have to peak by 2015 to give a chance of limiting a rise in average temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) above pre-industrial times -- a ceiling agreed to in Cancun.

不過根據近期的預測,科學家的期望並不會發生。根據顧問公司Ecofys的能源暨氣候政策執行長霍尼表示,各國政府現今對抗全球暖化的政策,將會讓全球均溫比工業革命之前高出攝氏3.6度。

But based on current projections, that will not happen. Existing government policies for combating global warming will lead to a rise in world temperatures of about 3.6 C (6.5 F) above pre-industrial times, according to Niklas Hoehne, director of energy and climate policy at consultancy Ecofys.

生死攸關

MATTER OF OUR SURVIVAL

中國和印度領頭的發展中國家,正在經歷勃發的經濟成長,這幫助舒緩了貧窮所造成的衝擊,即使在富國經濟衰退的狀況下,全球溫室氣體排放量仍在增加。

Surging economic growth in emerging nations led by China and India are helping to ease poverty but are driving up world emissions even as rich nations' economies flounder.

自從1992年在里約熱內盧成立聯合國氣候大會之後,簽訂新協議一事就一直困擾著與會各國。聯合國氣候大會1997年所簽下的京都議定書,只限制將近40個富國在2012年以前這個初期階段的碳排放量。

A new treaty has eluded the world since a U.N. Climate Convention was agreed to in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The convention's 1997 Kyoto Protocol (4) only binds about 40 rich nations to curb emissions during an initial period ending in 2012.

在坎昆會議的場外,青年代表穿著藍色T恤,上面印著歐拉的質疑;這些青年代表們揮舞著標語,高呼:「1.5度讓我們活下去。」他們說的是,為了避免氣候變遷所帶來的最糟衝擊,必須要限制均溫上升幅度在攝氏1.5度以下。

Outside the conference hall, youth delegates wearing blue T-shirts with Ora's quote waved banners saying, "1.5 to stay alive." They say a temperature rise ceiling of 1.5 C (2.7 F) is needed to avoid the worst impacts.

甚至對於部分與會代表來說,特別是來自易受氣候變遷傷害的非洲國家和處於海平面上升的低海拔國家代表,氣候談判似乎就像重新安排鐵達尼上的甲板躺椅,但冰山仍在前方。

Even to some delegates, especially from vulnerable African nations and low-lying islands at risk of sea level rise, the talks seem like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

與歐拉一樣來自索羅門群島的貝克表示:「這是攸關我們生死的大事。」他是「小島國家聯盟」的副主席。自從工業革命以來,全球均溫已上升了約攝氏0.8度;全球均溫紀錄自19世紀開始紀錄以來,2010年預計是均溫前三高的年份之一,另外兩個均溫最高的年份是1998年和2005年。

"This is a matter of our survival," said Colin Beck, who like Ora is from the Solomon Islands and a vice-chair of the Alliance of Small Island States. Average world temperatures have already risen about 0.8 degree C (1.4 F) since the Industrial Revolution (5) and 2010 is set to be among the top three years on record, vying with 1998 and 2005, since records began in the 19th century.

現在能做的事

THINGS YOU CAN DO NOW

儘管坎昆會議結果仍讓各界陷入低迷氣氛,但是在如冰河般凍滯不前的聯合國會議之外,有一股回應氣候變遷的力量正在發生:市場對煤礦、石油和天然氣的投資漸轉到可再生能源的投資上。以中國為例,就在從太陽能到高速鐵路等事業上大筆投資。

Despite the gloom, others say a response is happening away from the glacial U.N. talks, with investment shifts from coal, gas and oil toward renewable energies. China is investing heavily in projects ranging from solar power to high-speed rail links.

世界銀行總裁左里克說:「我們一直試著強調,重點不應該只放在協議內容字字斟酌攻防的協商上,因為其實有些事我們現在就可以開始做。」

"We've been trying to emphasize that the focus shouldn't solely be on the struggles with the treaty negotiations -- this word and that word -- because there are things you can do now," World Bank President Robert Zoellick said.

在審計、稅務和顧問團體企業安侯建業會計師事務所擔任氣候顧問的波爾,曾經也是聯合國的首席氣候官員,他說:「商業界並不是只有袖手旁觀,等待氣候協議的共識結果出爐。……這世界無論如何都會向前進。」他列出以下幾點關懷,包括:氣候、能源價格、能源安全、資源稀少及消費者偏好等;此外也理解到,由於地球人口即將由68億人增加到2050年的90億人,這勢必要做些改變。

"Business is not sitting back and waiting for this process to come to a result. ... The world is moving ahead anyway," said Yvo de Boer, climate adviser at audit, tax and advisory group KPMG and a former U.N. climate chief. He listed concerns over climate, energy prices, energy security, materials scarcity, consumer preferences and a realization that things had to change with the world population set to reach 9 billion by 2050 from 6.8 billion now.

聯合國的氣候科學家小組表示,造成過去半世紀以來全球暖化的主要原因,至少有90%的可能性是來自於人類活動,但也不能完全將自然因素排除在外。氣候科學家小組主席帕喬里向坎昆各國與會代表提出警告,氣候變遷當中,有一項被低估的效應,就是氣候暖化造成水量擴張,以及在冰河融解的同時,更多水量注入海洋而導致海平面上升。

The U.N. panel of climate scientists says it is at least 90 percent likely that human activities are the main cause of most of the global warming in the past half-century. Natural causes cannot be completely ruled out. Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the panel, warned delegates in Cancun that one underestimated effect of climate change was that water expands as it warms, raising the oceans at the same time as more flows in from melting glaciers.

(路透Reuters)


關鍵字詞

Key Words

1. global warming  

(n.) 全球暖化

2. drought 

(n.) 旱災

3. rain forest 

(n.) 雨林

4. Kyoto Protocol

(n.) 京都議定書

5. Industrial Revolution  

(n.) 工業革命

訪客 / 2010-12-16 05:39:21
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